We all know the surf changes with the seasons; summer swell isn't at all the same as winter swell. It's also true that the same season, year to year, brings differences; the swells of winter '06-'07 were feeble compared to the swells of winter '07-'08.

Now that winter is turning to spring, we can assess the past season's surf to be above average. The Mav's contest went off, epic days on the North Shore were numerous, storm activity in the North Pacific was prolific, and in between monster rainfalls and wind bouts, the days of good surf in northern California were almost non-stop.

On the verge of spring, the weekend of March 8 brought lackluster waves to the shores of Santa Cruz. Oh it was rideable alright, but there wasn't any punch to the surf; the wave heights were shoulder high or less, and the sets were intermittent. It was as if the winter ocean was tiring of firing after a long powerful season of waves. Though I cruised DogLand and surfed a few breaks, it didn't seem worth it to take any pictures or spin any tales of the weekend waves.

Instead, this column grew from my reflections. Past years have produced a healthy spring of waves, slowly turning from a preponderance of NW winter swell to a stream of southerly waves. Days grow longer, afternoon NW winds grow in intensity, wind surfers and kit surfers emerge from hibernation, and the surf evolves from big scary powerful waves to small fun-size waves. But this process takes a few months, and during the crossover the surf is plentiful and varied.

Now I'm not a long-range wave forecaster, but I get the sense that this spring is going to be different. Maybe it's just the past weekend that has me guessing, and maybe it's other indicators that I see in the weather patterns. Be that as it may, here's what I'm thinking: The spring waves will be mostly non-existent. We are likely to turn like a switch from winter to summer.

The last north west storm activity could be any time now, maybe it's already a done deal. The first real south swell is likely to grace our shores within the month of March. In between swells, the doldrums of flat-itis will frustrate us all. And these spells are going to be numerous and possibly lengthy. It's going to feel like a long time before autumn arrives with the next season of big waves.

The recent weekend really brought it home for me. Only a week or two ago, monster, triple-overhead hero waves were hammering all the breaks from north to south. But by Sunday, I was close to eking for waves, scouting break after break seeking to optimize the marginal conditions. All the while I pondered why this was happening before Saint Patrick's day. My thoughts led to these conclusions and this column.

Don't take it to the bank; I didn't study metrology or oceanography at any college. But I've traveled the coast of these counties from San Francisco to Monterey for many many seasons, and many many years. I've seen, heard, tasted, and felt all the possibilities before, and hope to continue this journey for many years to come. At this time, all the clues I see are pointing to one conclusion; as soon as spring comes, it will turn to summer. This will affect our weather, and sadly, our waves.

We'll all have a chance to evaluate my prediction, and for my part I certainly hope I'm wrong. But the signs of this are all around us, and I can't escape the feeling that it's going to be a bad season for waves until October, 2008.

CU Out There,

DogMan